Category Archives: ISSSP Reflections

Findings of the Permanent Court of Arbitration: A Major Diplomatic Setback to China

ISSSP Reflections No. 47, July 14, 2016

Author: R.N. Ganesh

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25-nine-dashed-line-in-the-south-china-seaChina’s claims in the South China Sea are based on its “9-dash line”, which claims virtually the whole of the South China Sea. The 9-dash line is itself based on an ‘11-dash line” published by the Republic of China in 1947, (i.e., before the creation of the Peoples’ Republic of China), which has no valid historic, logical or legal basis. This claim predates the UNCLOS by several decades, and most of the countries of the SE Asian region were not even independent states at the time. China claims sovereignty over the South China Sea and has used military force to interfere with legitimate fishing and oil exploration activity by regional coastal states.  From 1970 the PRC reiterated its demands more aggressively when the Philippines began oil exploration off its coast. The Philippines began oil production in 1984, and today its offshore oil meets nearly 15% of its national requirement.

UNCLOS: Scope of Authority            

The UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea, to which the parties to the disputes in the South China Sea are signatories, lays down the principles based on which the living and non-living resources of the sea bed may be exploited by coastal state. As modified by the lay of the continental shelf and various other factors, it prescribes a limit of 200 nautical miles (approximately 360 kms), as the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the coastal state. The Scarborough Shoal, the Spratley islands and the Paracels lie well outside this limit from China. In any case, where the EEZs of two coastal states overlap, they have to be negotiated and agreed based on certain formulae.

The UNCLOS does not rule on issues of sovereignty or national or territorial borders. Rather, it prescribes methods for use of the sea and the exploitation of the resources in and under it, outside of national boundaries. It also lays down how the limits of the EEZ are to be defined and the use and limits for the exploitation of the Continental shelf by coastal states. An important law in the Convention is that rocks and features that cannot sustain human habitation or economic life of their own shall have no exclusive economic zone or continental shelf. This is an issue that is particularly relevant in the case of the South China Sea.

South China Sea Disputes & the Case of Philippines

Taiwan and the coastal states of the ASEAN have 9 different points of dispute concerning maritime boundaries. Of these 7 involve China, and at least 5 states are affected in all but 2 of the disputes with China. China is averse to multilateral discussions and insists on dealing with each state separately so that it can extract the most advantage.

In the absence of any progress of its efforts to resolve the problems with China and the economic loss caused by inability to exploit its rightful maritime resources, the Philippines took its case to Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague in January 2013. The case dealt with 15 separate complaints about violations of international law by China in the South China Sea. Beijing responded by saying that it would not participate in any proceedings at The Hague, and that the PCA had no jurisdiction in the matter. The PCA undertook a detailed examination of China’s submission and in October last year it published its determination that the case fell within its jurisdiction. It accordingly proceeded with 7 of the 15 issues raised by the Philippines. These dealt with the following aspects:

  1. Role of historic rights
  2. Source of maritime entitlements
  3. Generation of maritime entitlements by certain maritime features
  4. Unlawful activities by China that were in violation of the Convention

Findings of the PCA               

  1. China’s Historic Rights: The Court ruled that the provision of comprehensive and exclusive rights by the UNCLOS had extinguished historic rights as they were incompatible with the concept of exclusive economic zones.
  2. Chinese Control over S. China Sea Waters: There was no historical evidence of Chinese control over the South China Sea waters or its resources
  3. Nine-Dash Line: There was no legal basis for claiming resources within the Nine-dash Line
  4. Maritime Features and Maritime Entitlements: The Court found that some reefs had been heavily modified by construction and land reclamation.  None of the features were capable of sustaining inhabitation in their natural state; therefore they could not have an EEZ, but only a 12-mile territorial limit.
  5. Within Philippine EEZ: As some areas were outside any possible entitlement of China, the Court could declare that these are within the the EEZ Philippine EEZ
  6. Unlawful Actions by China: The Court found that China had violated Philippines rights by interfering in with its fishing and oil exploration, constructing artificial islands, and allowing Chinese fishermen to fish in the Philippines EEZ.  China had also caused great harm to the marine environment by destroying reefs and depleting endangered species such as sea turtles. The Court found that China’s actions were incompatible with the the obligations on a while dispute resolution proceedings were going on.

Implications of the Findings of the Court of Arbitration

China has clearly suffered a setback with the Court of Arbitration so explicitly declaring it a violator of the UNCLOS, and upholding Philippines position. It is quite evident that the dashed lines have no validity and that seems to knock the bottom out of China’s case.

This does not mean that China will resile from its present claims in the South China Sea. Its whole aim there is to acquire the rights to exploit sub-sea resources, particularly offshore oil, and its likely reaction can be predicted. It will harden its position, condemn the Arbitration proceedings and reject the findings (which it has already said it would do) and adopt a tougher and more belligerent posture in its dealings with the USA and the ASEAN, which is already dubious about long-term security support from the US. It may respond to its legal and diplomatic failure with military bravado. It may well become more hard-nosed in its dealings with India, for instance in the border issue and in trade.  Such a reaction will be of a kind with its method of international policy, such as its aggressive postures with Japan over the Senkaku islands, or the ordering of the ADIZ over East China.

The softening of the US towards China has in a sense contributed to matters reaching near-crisis.  America has been aware for more long about the construction and land reclamation in the South China Sea, but its response has been muted, as it is not ideally placed to demand adherence to the Arbitration Court’s findings, not having itself ratified the UNCLOS.

China’s long-term aspiration, however, is to gain status and assert its place at the global  “head table.” This it cannot do if it continues to behave like a maverick. It has to return to its professed policy of a “harmonious rise” This will only happen if the world community takes a firmer stand on its conforming to international agreements.

About the Author

Vice Admiral RN Ganesh (Retd.) has commanded a diesel submarine, a nuclear submarine and the aircraft carrier INS Vikrant. His last appointment was as the Director General of the Indian nuclear submarine programme which he continued to head after retirement from active service till 2004. He is adjunct faculty, ISSSP, NIAS.

Threats and Challenges in Countering Lone Wolf Attacks

ISSSP Reflections No. 46, July 07, 2016

Author: Harsh Vasani

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Flag used by the ISIS

On the 21st of May, in a new propaganda audio message released by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria’s media arm al-Furqan, the group’s spokesperson, Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, urged sympathisers in Europe and the United States to launch lone wolf attacks on civilians in their home countries if they are unable to travel to the caliphate in Syria and Iraq. Adnani encouraged lone wolf attacks during the holy month of Ramadan, which starts early in June, “to win the great award of martyrdom”.

This is not the first time the group has called for such attacks, and neither are these threats empty. Recent attacks in Orlando, Paris, Brussels, London, and California have proved that Western society is not beyond the reach of ISIS and that the threat of another such attack on western soil remains very real. ISIS has a history of calling for its sympathisers to not wait for direction, rather undertake lone wolf attacks in their own countries. The mass shooting at a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida; the murder of Lee Rigby near army barracks in London in May 2013; the hostage crisis in Sydney; the San Bernardino attack or the Boston marathon bombings affirm the danger of this resurgent form of terrorism.Add

So what exactly are “Lone Wolf Attacks” and why are the terrorists using it? Among the Islamists, the concept of lone wolf attacks can be traced back to 2003 when an article posted in the extremist internet forum – Sada al-Jihad (Echoes of Jihad) – encouraged sympathisers of Osama bin Laden to take action without waiting for instructions. In 2004, Abu Musab al-Suri (or Mustafa Setmariam Nasar), a dual citizenship Spanish-Syrian who was in the inner circle of Osama Bin Laden, but fell out with him after 9/11, published an article titled “Call for Worldwide Islamic Resistance” on the Internet which called for the next stage of jihad, characterized by terrorism created by individuals or small autonomous groups. In 2006, al Qaeda leader Abu Jihad al-Masri followed suit with a call to arms, titled “How to fight alone”, which was circulated widely in jihadist networks.

Although, Jeffrey Simon, security consultant and visiting Professor at the Department of Political Science, UCLA, has conceptualised “lone wolf terrorism” very well in his book Lone Wolf Terrorism: Understanding the Growing Threat, it is important to note here that no single definition of lone wolf attacks or lone wolf terrorism exists. Jeffrey Simon, in his book, states that there are five basic types of lone wolves — secular, religious, single-issue, criminal, and idiosyncratic – although some lone wolves fall into more than one category. Indeed, classification and categorisation of lone wolf attacks is complex. The challenges of lone wolf attacks confronted by law enforcement agencies has increased very recently and there is a need for a comprehensive definition in order to combat this new kind of challenge and assess the response and propose innovative ways to combat this phenomenon.

For the benefit of better understanding and clarity, lone wolf attacks can be defined as any act of violence undertaken by an individual or individuals without any material support, orders, direction or assistance of any organisation and intended to create panic or terror in the society to spread a political message or coerce the government to undertake certain political action. As a report prepared by the National Security Critical Issue Task Force, Georgetown University, points out:

“absent violence or the threat of violence, the individual may hold extremist or radicalised views, but he or she is not a terrorist. Absent political motivation, an attack would more closely resemble traditional forms of crime, organised violence, or hate crimes. Absent the individual acting alone, the attack would fall under the traditional definition of terrorism that encompasses violence conducted by organised terrorist groups.”

A comprehensive survey of past Lone Wolf Attacks indicates that self-radicalisation using the internet is a recent phenomenon. In the past, radicalisation used to take place through jihadist literature, books and other propaganda material. The lone wolves usually driven by perceived injustice and looking for a larger calling in life, are attracted to online chat forums, blogs, videos or social media where they can find propaganda and radical material using which they end up radicalising themselves. Along with anonymity, the internet provides potential Lone Wolf Terrorists (LWTs) with instructions on obtaining weapons, building explosive devices from easily-obtained materials, and names and descriptions of potential U.S. owned targets.


Orlando Nightclub gunman Omar Mateen

For instance, the recent mass shooting in Orlando, Florida, highlights how Oman Mateen, the perpetrator of the shooting, was motivated by ISIS propaganda on the internet, along with the neighbourhood mosque, and driven by hate for the LGBT community, even though he was himself believed to be a regular to the gay nightclub and reportedly used quite a few gay dating apps. In an issue of its online magazine, Inspire, dedicated to “open source jihad” the group outlines for the “aspiring mujahideen globally” how to make the bomb from “household goods and without using metal components that would show up in airport security checks.”

Even though the number of lone wolf attacks and people killed in these attacks is still quite low, the ability to create panic by these attacks is very high. Imagine a beheading, or a mass shooting by a lone wolf in Trafalgar square of Time square? A 2013 study by Sarah Teich points out an increase in the number of countries targeted by lone wolves from the 1990s to the 2000s with the highest level of attacks occurring in the United States, followed by the U.K and Germany, and that there is an increase in the number of people injured and killed by lone wolves. According to her findings, the number of attacks has grown exponentially since 9/11 and the war on terror. Whereas there were nine injuries and five deaths due to lone wolf attacks in the decade preceding 9/11, the number of injuries and deaths rose exponentially to 54 and 33 respectively in the decade 2000-09. Further, the increase in the number of lone wolf attacks has been consistent with 275 injuries and 15 deaths due to such attacks since 2010.

For the law enforcement agencies, a lone wolf terrorist is more difficult to trace as he/she is not physically affiliated to any terrorist organisation. Lone Wolf Attacks are different from conventional terrorist attacks given that they are carried out without any help or direction from any larger organisation and are therefore difficult to predict as intelligence gathering about such attacks is also comparatively difficult.

Also, these lone wolves access propaganda and radical content over the internet, but doing so is not a crime in western society. Surveillance may alert security agencies of individuals accessing such content or sympathising with terrorist organisations, but these agencies cannot take action against these individuals because they are not breaking any law by browsing through such propaganda material.            

Although Al Qaeda has recently urged Muslims in India to mount lone wolf attacks and “follow the example of youths in Europe and strike against Indian police and senior officials, holding them responsible for communal violence,” so far the countries facing the biggest threat from LWTs are largely Western liberal democracies. ISIS has also called for its sympathisers to undertake LWAs against western societies and encouraged lone wolves in the US to “attack servicemen and women as well as other key landmarks such as Times Square and Las Vegas strip.”

According to a law enforcement bulletin prepared by the  Central Florida Intelligence Exchange, Islamic State fighters have increased calls for “lone wolves” to attack U.S. soldiers in America in recent months, citing one tweet that called for jihadists to find service members’ addresses online and then “show up and slaughter them.” Additionally, the US remains the primary target among western states for LWAs. Ramon Spaaij, in his book Understanding Lone Wolf Terrorism: Global Patterns, Motivations and Prevention, states that of the 198 LWAs carried out between 1968 and 2010 across the US and fourteen other predominantly western countries, 113 occurred in the United States, representing fifty-seven percent of all attacks.

This begs the question that why is it that the western society is more vulnerable to the lone wolf attacks. Numerous studies have concentrated on the question of the integration problem the second generation Muslim immigrants face in the west. Can it be the discrimination they face, socially as well as economically, that drives them to a perception of injustice and eventually radicalisation? Fenella Fleischmann, in her work on second-generation Muslims in European societies, points out how popular and political interest over the presence of Islam and Muslims in Western Europe skyrocketed with major terrorist attacks in New York, Madrid and London, which were followed by a number of realised and attempted attacks all over Western Europe. She states that “Muslims in Europe are commonly devalued as a group which is unfit or unwilling to integrate; which places religious values such as the honour of the Prophet above core principles of Western liberal democracies such as the freedom of expression (the most prominent example here being the so-called “Danish cartoon crisis”); which oppresses women; and which aggressively tries to dominate European public spaces, for instance through the building of highly visible mosques with minarets. ”

On the other hand, Robert Leiken in his book Europe’s Angry Muslims: The Revolt of the Second Generation points out that it is the uncritical official tolerance that has bred conflict. For instance: while the British government embraced multiculturalism, encouraging Muslims to form separate enclaves, some of which fostered hostile extremism and even terrorism, France rejected multiculturalism, encouraging Muslims to assimilate. Less terrorism ensued, and the riots in recent years involving young French Muslims have had little to do with Islam or jihad and instead have been responses to unequal access to education and employment.

Whether or not the threat of home-grown lone wolf terrorists can be addressed by reversing the perception of injustice and discrimination among second-generation Muslims is a question of immense importance. However, worryingly, it should not be forgotten that most lone wolves terrorists are likely to display some form of psychopathology as well as social ineptitude, which poses a unique challenge to the security and intelligence agencies.

About the Author

Mr Harsh Vasani is a Postgraduate Research Scholar at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal University, Karnataka. He can be reached at <harsh.vsn[at]>

Nepal: Return of the Madhesi Movement

ISSSP Reflections No. 45, June 08, 2016

Author: Nazrin Huzzain

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The second round of agitations has started in Nepal. There seems to be a new game plan from the Sanghiya Gathbandhan or Federal Alliance  and getting back into the agitation mode? How is the government likely to react?

 The Madhesi Agitati240920150511442-600x0on: New found support

The Janajati and Madhesis have joined forces and formed a Federal Alliance known as the Sanghiya Gathabandhan to protest together in Kathamndu.  The Madhesis seem to be striving forthe recognition of all the marginalised ethnic groups in Nepal.

The new coalition seems to be getting support, as they are seen fighting for a just cause. A federal state is not just the demand of the Madhesis, but the majority in Nepal. The constitution demands dividing Nepal into seven federal units. There is no basis on which this division has been made. If this proposal moves forward then people belonging to the same ethnic group will be split into different units.  This is something which is opposed by all the ethnic groups.

The Madhesis have been successful in mobilising the support of other ethnic groups.   This is not because the ethnic groups in Nepal are sympathising with the Madhesis, but the demands of the latter resonate with their own. Unlike the blockade earlier, the new agitations that have started in May 2016 are not the demands of the Madhesis alone; it is a call for recognition by all the marginalised ethnic groups in Nepal. Is the government listening?

Protesting in Kathmandu: A foolproof plan

The decision to move the protests to Kathmandu have been a stroke of genius. It has produced the outcome that the Madhesis had wanted – mobilise support and increase momentum for the movement. Now that the Madhesis are not alone in their cause, utmost caution is required moving forward. They should stick to their demands and not let the success to undermine their larger goal. There have been recent reports that the majority of the Morcha allies have threatened to withdraw from the alliance because, some leaders are seen as using it for their political interests disregarding the concerns of the Morcha allies. Divisions within the alliance will have a larger impact on the movement and result in its failure. This could gravely affect the momentum that the movement has picked up during May 2016.

The Gathabandhan should also be careful and ensure that the protests do not turn violent. Also, the movement should work towards avoiding another blockade. A blockade would increase the problem of black marketing that is right now on the rise in Nepal.  Prolonged violent protests and blockades would seriously affect the support that the Madhesis have gained. Recommencing dialogue with the government would be a good idea at this juncture, when the movement is enjoying such popular support.

The government’s response

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Kamal Thapa announced during February-March 2016 that the government would be conducting local elections soon.  This is the second time this year that such an announcement has been made. Conducting elections without resolving the constitutional issues could have serious implications. If elections are held, demarcating the territory will prove difficult. This decision has been criticised heavily by the Madhesi parties. The government is trying to distract the people with false promises instead of dealing with the major issue at hand- the Madhesi movement. 

The movement is clearly on the rise, the government cannot afford to remain silent any longer.  Prime Minister Oli should stop blaming India and concentrate on resolving domestic issues. Talks have been held between the government and the Morcha, 36 times before, yielding no result. The government should start taking the talks seriously. Dialogue is the only way that the issue can be resolved. If the Gathbandhan refuses to even attend these talks owing to the insincerity of the government, the problem could take a grave turn. If the protestors turn violent, the issue could get out of hand.  Another blockade could prove fatal to Nepal’s economy, which is licking its wounds after a massive earthquake and a blockade imposed by the Madhesis earlier.

If the government fails to address the demand of the Federal Alliance now, their demands would only get stronger. The alliance is planning to move the protests to Birjung and Pokhara later. This could lead to more ethnic groups joining forces with the Gathbandhan. The government would be at a complete loss if the Madhesis along with the other ethnic groups in Terai start demanding for a separate state. The Tarai being referred as the granary of Nepal, can cause seious repercussions, if the region starts contemplating on those terms. Such a process will neither help Nepal nor its minorities within. Nor will it help the region, especially India and India-Nepal relations. The government should get more serious about this issue.

About the Author

Ms. Nazrin Huzzain is is pursuing M.A. in International Studies at Stella Maris College, Chennai. Views are personal.

Bangladesh in Limbo over Blogger Deaths

ISSSP Reflections No. 44, June 06, 2016

Author: Sourina Bej 

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8CBCD629-95AA-41BF-9D66-140A3F3AE111_w987_r1_sThe string of blogger deaths in Bangladesh, since August 6 2015, has raised several questions. What picture does the attack on a small group of writers paint? What is the response of the government to these attacks? Is secular identity of Bangladesh under siege?

Who are the attacked and attackers?

Targeted in public place under broad daylight, hacked with machetes on the head or neck ensuring immediate death and roughly one victim every month; the pattern in the target killings of secular bloggers, liberal academicians and activists in Bangladesh is striking. Dhaka is riffed with conspiracy theories over the killings and government’s handling of them. Washiqur Rahman, who was killed in March on his way to work, used only a pen name for his blog. Yet the attackers identified and located his home. It is not only the writers but also the publishers who are killed. After the death of Avijit Roy, founder of Mukto Mon, his publisher was hunted down in his office.

The number of deaths may be small but it has heavily jolted the ‘still wounded’ memories of many from the closing days of liberation war. In 1971, around 200 writers, professors and secular-minded intellectuals were abducted from their homes by al-Badr supported by Jamaat-e-Islami party. Jamaat-e-Islami has been accused of collaborating with the Pakistani army to stifle the liberation warriors.    

In 2008, as Awami League established a war-crimes tribunal and executed a senior Jamaat leader Mohammad Kamaruzzaman couple of years later, Jamaat launched a violent protest. The trials dictated popular support and captured the imagination of urban, middle-class youth who advocated the hanging. The line of secular, liberal values and public justice blurred as bottled-up religious nationalism slowly overwhelmed a section of Islamists.

On May 2010, along with the protest against the trials, a simultaneous voice rose demanding the hanging of atheist bloggers and secular activists. It echoed dissatisfaction between the Islamists and Liberals.

Hefajat-e-Islam, a banner combining several religious fundamentalist groups, published a list of 84 bloggers accusing them of blasphemy. Five bloggers, whose name appears in the hit list, have been killed in a month’s gap earlier last year.  

Bangladesh has been witnessing attacks on free speech, which escalated under the military rule but no one common person was targeted for their different beliefs or their sexual expressions until now. In the initial stages of the freedom movement, political parties had liberty to organise and the press could still publish with fewer censorships. Bengali nationalism, socialism, communism of various hues – all found expression in print with a mix of agnostic, atheist, socialist, and liberal discussions. With the onslaught of Pakistani military, newspapers were closed and journalists killed. After Bangladesh won independence new publications emerged and freedom of speech was ungagged, but even that space was unstable, falling prey to one-party rule and dictatorships.  

In 2007, Bangladesh saw its own cartoon crisis. Alpin, the cartoon magazine associated with the daily Prothom Alo, was shut down and the editor knelt before the imam of the main mosque in Dhaka. The cartoonist, Arifur Rahman, was jailed. Consequently, the government banned the Eid supplement of Shaptahik 2000 for carrying a personal essay by Daud Haider who had been exiled in mid-70s for blasphemy.   

New age technology fuelled newer means of expression. With blogging, several atheists and liberal thinkers found a platform to criticise the acts of intolerance propagated by a section of Wahabi-influenced fundamental groups. The young zestful bloggers, incensed by crimes committed in the name of Islam worldwide, have rejected (this sect) their religion with sharp offensive words. The repercussions to these blogs have are not been a counter blog post or rallies but now violent deaths and threats.

Government in a limbo?

Bangladeshi police suspect Ansarullah Bangla Team, a domestic militant group, of the murders. Eight members of the group were convicted last year for the murder of Ahmed Rajib Haider. The Bangladesh police department, but last week, has concluded that the spurt in killings coincide with the hanging of the war criminal hinting at the groups (in this case Jammat) dissatisfied with the trial to be behind the murder. However, the families of the victim tell a different tale. Rafida Ahmed, wife and eye witness for the murder of Avijit Roy, said her statement is yet to be recorded.

Prime Minister Sheik Hasina was flanked for condemning the bloggers for their posts instead off stepping up the investigation to nab the culprits. The situation worsened when Awami League government’s adviser asked the bloggers’ to refrain from writing foul about Prophet Muhammad as it might be blamed on the government’s secularism business.  The inability to ensure a relief from fear to voice opinion has placed the party in a limbo.  Simultaneously the party’s secular ideology came under siege ever since it failed to lift the clause declaring Islam as state religion of Bangladesh. The controversy over Section 57 of the Information and Communication Technology Act, 2006 has done little to save the beleaguered party. BNP-Jammat maintains an equivocal silence on the death and is criticizing the government for using the trials as weapon to punish the opposition.  

An attack on secularism?

Bangladesh is a secular country in principal. Its secularism doesn’t essentially mean absence of religion from public space but coexistence of plural religions, sects without affecting the other. The attack on the bloggers and liberal academicians hints at a dichotomy in the expression of the country’s pluralistic religious identities.

Islam, the dominant religion in Bangladesh, has been regionally informed. The Bengali vision of Islam forges the conscious of the nation and it transcends the differences among many Muslim sects. Extreme Jamaat-e-Islami party, Tablighi to Sufism speak the same Bengali language and the people pride in their Bangla ethnicity, its liberal values.

Induced by this liberal value, a section of people in Bangladesh especially its academicians, activists or now bloggers have remained vocal and critical in their social endeavour. The bloggers have denounced the extremist expression of Islam as parochial and have called it not their own Islam. Infuriated by the foul and extreme expression of the bloggers, the killers have drawn swords. But the hacking of university professor in Rajshahi and LGBT editor reveals that the killings are not restricted to bloggers but has also extended to liberal activists who may or may not have a view on religion. The secular template can be distorted if the diverse opinion is not respected and caught in between the extreme voices.   

About the Author

Ms. Sourina Bej is pursuing M.A. in International Studies at Stella Maris College, Chennai. Views are personal.

Heavy Water leakage at the Kakrapar Nuclear Power Plant

ISSSP Reflections No. 43, June 2, 2016

Author: Kaveri Ashok

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nuclear-power-plant_story_647_031116054750Kakrapar Atomic Power Station (KAPS) is situated near Vyara town of Gujarat. The campus houses two units of operational 220MW Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR), and two units of 700MW PHWRs under construction. The unit 1 was declared world’s best performing PHWR in 2003 by the CANDU owners group (COG). The fact that the Kakrapar nuclear power plant, located about 400km southeast of the epicentres of the 2001 quake scaling 7.9 in the Ritcher scale, continued to function even in the aftermath of the 2001 quake, is evidence of their in-built quake-proof technology.

In its 24 years of operation, the reactor has been shut down thrice due to operational anomalies:

  • Unit-1 was temporarily shut down for 66 days in 1998 due to a leak in its stator water systems.
  • On 10 March 2004, when Unit-1 was in operation generating 170 Megawatts of electricity, an event involving rise of reactor power occurred. (Level 2, INES)
  • On March 11, 2016, a leakage of heavy water from the coolant pipes led to the shutdown of the Unit 1. (Level 1, INES)

In order to better understand the March 11 incident at KAPS 1, this article attempts to contextualise the current incident within the history Heavy Water spills/leaks in similarly designed Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs) in India.

Nuclear Reactors: Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor

A nuclear reactor is based on the process of neutron-induced nuclear fission, in which a heavy nucleus, such as that of uranium or plutonium is split into fission products, releasing energy. Each fission reaction releases 2-3 neutrons, which can induce fission in more nuclei, thus starting a chain reaction. Nuclear reactors are designed to achieve a self-sustaining chain reaction to steadily produce energy. The minimum fissionable material required to attain chain fission is called critical mass and when the reactor first sustains a chain reaction, it is said to have become critical. The region of the reactor where the chain fission reaction takes place is known as the core. Typically in a nuclear reactor, the energy produced in the core is transferred to a primary coolant, whose heat is in turn used to generate steam to turn the turbines and hence produce electricity.

Depending upon the choice of the fissile material (fuel), the coolant and moderator are chosen. The fissile nuclei (of isotopes U235, U233 and Pu239) undergo fission with neutrons of all energies. Other atoms such as U238, Pu240 and Th232 undergo fission only with neutrons of higher energy (fast neutrons). In the naturally available uranium, these fissile nuclei are present in trace amounts only. So in order to maintain a chain reaction, the energetic neutrons produced during fission should be slowed down/ moderated; or there should be a large amount of fissile atoms.

In a PHWR, the fuel used is natural uranium. Hence, the neutrons must be effectively slowed down for chain reaction to sustain. Heavy water is used both as moderator and coolant in this type of reactor. There are 47 PHWRs operating across the world, out of which 17 are in India. They are a salient feature of the first stage of the oft cited three-stage Indian nuclear programme.

The heart of PHWR is a cylindrical core called Calandria. This contains the heavy water (moderator). Horizontal tubes made of Zircalloy run through the calandria, (called calandria tubes) inside which there is another tube called the pressure tube, which houses the fuel bundles. Zircalloy is favoured because of its low probability of absorption of neutrons causing fission in the fuel bundle. The coolant heavy water flows through the pressure tubes, thus transferring the heat produced in the fuel bundles during fission. The coolant heavy water is kept at high pressure, to avoid steam formation in the high temperature conditions since steam is not as effective as heavy water in removing the heat from the core. The control rods are used to control the rate of fission, and are made up of neutron absorbing materials such as cadmium and boron. The hot heavy water from the cala­­ndria then transfers its heat to ordinary water in the steam generators, which turns it into steam that drives the turbines which produces electricity.

Heavy Water and Indian PHWRs

Before delving into specific incidents, it is important to note that routine losses of Heavy Water in PHWR are anticipated and accounted for in its regular operation. PHWRs are designed for refuelling while in operation; and heavy water loss from the horizontal calandria pipes during refuelling is one such anticipated event. Similarly, while inspecting the coolant channels, seals and welds of the reactor core, with remote handling machinery, some heavy water loss is inevitable.

A report by Mark Hibbs in 1997 estimates an average HW losses for the Kakrapar reactors were “between 500 and 600 kg/month”, or about 6 to 7.2 tonnes per year. This claim was reinforced by a statement by the first Managing Director of the Nuclear Power Corporation that the annual replenishment for such losses in a typical 220 MW reactor is 7 tonnes/ year. Several AERB annual reports contain the details about outages and radioactive release occurring due to heavy water spills in the PHWRs from time to time.

Heavy water leaks have been recorded previously in the Indian PHWRs. The Rajasthan Atomic Power Station 1 reactor, that achieved criticality in 1972, used to face routine losses of a significant amount of Heavy Water during the initial years due to several failures of the Heat Exchangers. A failure of this kind could have resulted in the mixing of Heavy water with the ordinary water in the steam generator, hence escaping as steam, which in turn could lead to atmospheric release of Tritium. The following table from Dr M.R. Srinivasan’s edited volume of essays and cited in a paper by MV Ramana, Antonette D’Sa and Amulya KN Reddy details the quantities of heavy water spills (Escape); the quantities that are lost, after collecting back as much as possible for reuse (Loss); and the annual losses by virtue of the routine losses.

Year Loss (kg/day) Annual losses (tonnes)
1972 31 11.3
1973 69 25.2
1974 57 20.8
1975 77 28.1


It must be acknowledged that the DAE has come a long way since then managing the heavy water leaks- bringing it down several manifolds- in spite of the sanctions imposed by the global nuclear community, developing indigenous engineering solutions.

In September 1988, a heavy water leak inside the reactor vessel led to the shutdown of the Madras Atomic Power Station Unit 2 (MAPS-2). In 1991, there was another leak of 0.847 tonnes of heavy water from the moderator system.

Rajasthan Atomic Power Station RAPS-1 was shut down on February 2, 1994 after helium gas and heavy water leaked from the reactor’s Over Pressure Relive Device (OPRD). The OPRD is placed at the top of the calandria, whose purpose is to check the rise of pressure inside the calandria in case of an accident. The problem arose after a nickel gasket seal in the OPRD gave way. The nitrous oxide, which formed in the calandria vault due to radiation, began to eat into the nickel seal and once the nickel seal gave way, heavy water and helium began to leak. Heavy water started collecting in the calandria vault when the unit was in operation. Although it was a daunting engineering task, in high radiation zone, the leak was plugged successfully. Post this incident the Pressure tube ageing management programme was accelerated and implemented one year ahead of schedule.

As per the “Operating experience with nuclear members” series of the IAEA, in the year 1997, outages due to primary coolant leaks were recorded in Kakrapar 1, Narora 2 and MAPS 2 units.

On March 26, 1999, the MAPS-2 again witnessed a heavy water leak from the coolant channels. As was the case with the recent Kakrapar plant leak, a plant emergency was declared. However, the reactor was already shut down for 41 days prior to the incident. There were conflicting views on the incident regarding the nature of the incident and the quantity of the spill. The leakage was said to have occurred during a BARCCIS inspection that was underway in the MAPS as part of maintenance work. During such operations, which are done with fuel removed from the inspected channel and reactor in shut down state, the special seal plugs are positioned and operated by remote machinery. One of the seal plugs was not seated properly, resulting in a release of heavy water. This was arrested by reseating of the plug. The plant officials maintained that it was not an accident.

On April 15, 2000, there was a leak of Heavy Water from the moderator system into the reactor building in Narora Power Station— vibration (the flow of moderator heavy water through the heat exchanger tubes caused vibration) caused the failure of a gasket in the system piping. Three years later, on 25 April 2003, there was another leak at the same reactor. This incident also occurred during a BARCCIS inspection.

During the period 2000-2001, there was one incident of release of tritium activity (about 43 curies) from RAPS to Rana Pratap Sagar (RPS) lake, on September 26, 2000. Following the incident, the unit was shut down and the leaky heat exchanger was isolated. The activity released was well within the limits stipulated by AERB for discharge of radioactivity from RAPS to RPS lake.

Reactor, Year Activity released Permissible activity release per reactor per day
RAPS, 2000 43 curies 300 curies (corresponding to an annual dose of 4.2 microSv/year)

In India’s PHWR experience, one of the main reasons for HW leaks had been vibrations in the coolant tubes. When heavy water flowed in the pressure tubes, vibrations occurred and the garter springs, that are located between the two tubes, moved from their positions. This resulted in the coolant tubes sagging and coming into contact with the calandria tubes. While the temperature inside the coolant tubes was around 295 degree Celsius, the temperature in the calandria tubes was about 70 degree Celsius. The temperature of the coolant tubes came down at the points of contact, resulting in the formation of zirconium hydride which leads to the coolant tubes, made of zircalloy, becoming hard and brittle. This in turn causes micro-cracks in the coolant tubes. The hydriding problem in PHWRs has been overcome by using better alloys of Zirconium, containing Niobium, which are resistant to the formation of microcracks.

The Kakrapar Incident

The Kakrapar reactor was running in full capacity when a leakage of Heavy Water and a consequent rise in pressure in the containment building were detected. This resulted in the declaration of plant emergency. Importantly, the safety systems kicked in and the reactor has been in a cold shut down stage and all the radioactivity was contained within the reactor building.


Over a period of time the heavy Hydrogen (Deuterium) in the heavy water gets converted into radioactive Tritium by absorbing neutrons. Because tritium’s radiation (Beta radiation) cannot penetrate the skin, the only real exposure occurs while tritium is inside the body. The health effects depend on the form of tritium present, elemental tritium gas, tritium oxide or tritiated water. Although it is generally considered an insignificant exposure hazard, the body easily absorbs it in the form of tritiated water. Any tritiated water vapour that is inhaled, absorbed through the skin, or ingested will result in complete absorption of all radioactivity. The absorbed tritiated water is rapidly distributed throughout the body via blood, which in turn equilibriates with extracellular fluid in about 12 minutes. When it passes through a human body, it can produce permanent changes in cells. There are three principal potential health effects: cancer, genetic effects and effects on foetuses.

Initial assessment has indicated that the leak is from primary coolant system and the leak rate corresponds to ‘Small Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA)’ category. The coolant tubes of KAPS 1 were replaced with improved Zircalloy tubes in 2011. This was done as part of AERB’s periodic pressure tube ageing management programme, and even by conservative estimates, the replaced tubes were supposed to be operational for 25 years of reactor operation. This is one issue that the AERB and the DAE will have to investigate further.

The leak continued unabated until it was successfully isolated and plugged 10 days later following which the plant emergency was lifted. The affected coolant channel will now be removed and sent to the laboratories at BARC for further investigations in order to probe into the root cause of the incident. According to the AERB, the whole process will take a few months. Special equipment needs to be brought in to remove the affected coolant tube, along with the remote handling machinery and radiation shielding materials.

Kakrapar incident, although classified as an INES Level 1 incident by the AERB, is being dubbed as the second worst mish
ap in India’s accumulated 410 reactor years of experience, following the 1999 turbine fire incident in Narora, in terms of the potential accident it could have led to. However, such labelling could be premature and unnecessary given that the investigation into the incident is still underway and more importantly, the safety systems at the plant worked as planned. As the AERB Chairman S A Bhardwaj
puts it, until a detailed analysis of the events that led to the incident is available, all caution has to be exercised across all operational PHWRs as it cannot be ascertained whether it is a generic problem or a KAPS specific incident yet.

In Conclusion

In his book, Normal Accidents, Charles Perrow says that multiple and unexpected failures are built into society’s complex and tightly-coupled systems such as nuclear reactors. Such accidents are unavoidable and cannot be designed around. Investigations are underway, and it is bound to take a few months time for the complete details of the incident becomes available. This is because of the fact that the reactor was operating at full capacity at the time of the incident because of which the radioactivity levels inside the reactor would be high.

HW leaks and spillages must be dealt with for the following two reasons. First, even if some of these leaks may not be serious safety hazards by themselves, they may be precursors to serious accidents which could result in atmospheric or the environmental release of radioactivity.

Secondly, Heavy Water is expensive and hard to produce, hence making it a considerable burden on the economics of the PHWRs. Here, it is worth mentioning that the PHWRs are generally considered the more economical design compared to Light Water Reactors (LWR), because it uses natural uranium rather than enriched uranium therefore eliminating the requirement and costs of enrichment. More importantly, because of the use of natural uranium and lower burn-up, management of spent fuel from PHWRs is easier as compared to LWRs. The only major initial investment in PHWR is that of heavy water, and thus, managing the leaks becomes important to retain its cost effectiveness.

The Kakrapar incident is a wakeup call for the Indian nuclear establishment to build confidence in the public. Though the AERB website has a section exclusively dedicated to giving updates on the Kakrapar incident, given the speed at which the electronic and social media functions, more proactive communication is the need of the hour. Reaching out to the journalists with timely and accurate information and use of social media will help in establishing the real nature of incidents, leaving little room for speculation and result in alleviating concerns. While it was indeed reassuring that the safety systems of the reactor worked as intended, a transparent root cause analysis of the incident and its management will help build a healthy public dialogue.

About the Author

Ms. Kaveri Ashok is Senior Research Fellow at the International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSSP), National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore. She can be reached at <kaveriashok [at]>. The author is grateful for the valuable comments provided by L.V. Krishnan and Arun Vishwanathan on an earlier draft of the article. Views are personal.

Myanmar’s Rohingyas: Power Struggle, Buddhist Assertion & Ethnic Divide

ISSSP Reflections No. 42, May 31, 2016

Author: Albertina Nithya B.

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The Rohingya Muslims are considered as the most persecuted community of the 21st century. Are the Rohingyas victims of the power struggle in Myanmar? Are the Buddhists using this division among people to demonstrate their assertion vis-à-vis the military? Is the attack on Rohingyas a clash of ethnic identities in Myanmar?

What are the political undercurrents?

Myanmar is a diverse 8aa2society, but the Rohingyas are not part of the 135 registered ethnic groups. While one can state the overriding common sentiment of the Burmese to consider the Rohingya Muslims as illegal immigrants, the problem goes much deeper. The Rakhines are one of the dominant ethnic groups in Myanmar. Their ability to thwart a unanimous victory to the popular NLD in the Rakhine state demonstrates their considerable influence. The Rakhine National Party, created with the merger of Arakan League for Democracy and Rakhine Nationalities Development Party, resulted in the formation of the second largest ethnic political group in Myanmar. Thus it became prudent for any party meaning to establish government, to ensure a place in the good graces of one of the largest vote banks. The Rohingya issue became a political weapon to be wielded by parties to assert their power.

The military is widely believed to be behind the scenes of the communal tensions and plays a crucial role in the recent upsurge in violence. This is evident from the various reports written about the 2012 massacre including the Al Jazeera documentary. Also the research undertaken by Prof. Penny Green with a team of experts from ISCI proves beyond reproach that the 2012 massacre was not a communal riot but planned violence. The research goes on to implicate the military regime in the injustices meted out to the minority community. But why does the military engage in such activities? – political survival.  A false image is constructed by which the role of military becomes indispensible for ensuring safety and security in the state. This leads to closer cooperation and working relationship with the civilian government. It has been observed earlier when the first civilian government of U Nu shared power with the military to suppress the ethnic conflicts.

Slandering and denouncing the Rohingyas became a sure-fire way of ensuring popularity and reputation for the political party. It became a trend, a mainstream sentiment that found resonance among the populace. The political construct of the term ’Rohingya’ is being largely associated with the identity of a Bengali Muslim. Positioning oneself as being against the Rohingyas sends the message of supporting the 500,000 Buddhist monks of the country. The military junta by aiding the monks takes on the role of being the defenders of Buddhist religion and Burmese culture. This, in turn, appeases the dominant forces of the Rakhine province where political parties are largely anti-Rohingya in nature. For example, the Arakan National party’s slogan is “love your nationality, keep pure blood, be Rakhine and vote ANP.”

The linking of Rohingya Muslims with extremist groups is another disturbing trend that is emerging in contemporary times. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s statements, at the 13th ASEAN Chiefs of Defence Forces Informal Meeting in Vientiane, Laos, declared that all the member countries of ASEAN should come together to combat the regional threat of “Bengali extremism” related to the migration of Rohingyas. This demonstrates the fact of how the ethnic and religious identities of being a Rohingya and a Muslim are interchangeably used and reveals the country’s deep feeling of ‘Islamophobia.’

What are the religious undertones?

The 124 year long British colonial rule of Myanmar created among the Burmese, deep feelings of mistrust and resentment towards the foreigners. Buddhist monks like Ashin Wirathu, the face of anti-Muslim organisations like 969 and the Ma Ba Tha movement, are expertly using the xenophobia among people to instigate hatred and violence against the Rohingyas. Almost all the communal tensions that had happened since 2012 are preceded by inflammatory speeches by the radical monk.

The power possessed by the Buddhist monks was evident from the ‘saffron revolution’ of 2007 where they were able to force the government in letting out Aung San Suu Kyi for a few minutes to the view of the public. Though the revolution was a failure, it compelled the government not to underestimate the influence of the monks. The next series of steps adopted by the government displayed its intentions to consolidate the power of the monks to strengthen its reins on power. The anti-Muslim sentiments of fringe groups occupied the mainstream dialogue of the state and resulted in the creation of religious organisations like the 969 movement. Thus the military and the religious extremists forged a symbiotic relationship. But from the results of the current election that happened in November 2015, it was the radical monks who turned out to be the greater beneficiaries.

With charisma, unfounded claims and persuasive words, Wirathu played with the insecurity present among the populace to boost his own popularity. The Rohingya Muslims have become expendables in the hands of extremist monks in their quest for political power and the device they use is the protection of Buddhist religion from the criminal Muslims. Article 364 of the constitution of Myanmar forbids monks from taking part in any political activity. Wirathu, through his actions has proved how getting a seat in the parliament is not the only way by which you can exercise power.

The reason for the victimisation of Rohingyas by Wirathu is seen in his speeches as he paints a vile picture of the small number of wealthy Muslims residing in Mandalay and Yangon. A fear of being economically dominated and left at the mercy of the Muslim community seems to be the preposterous ideas constituting his hate speeches. He claims that if they continue to be complacent, the now poor Rohingyas may become rich and come to dominate them in the future. He also cites another reason for the Rohingyas to be ousted from the land. Labelling them as “enemies of the people” who use violence and distinguishing them from the other Muslims in the country by calling them ‘Bengali Rohingyas,’ he builds a special case for the minority Rohingya.

Why are the other religious minorities not getting persecuted? There are 1.2 percent more number of Christians than Muslims in Myanmar. Any logical explanation would lead to a higher probability of Myanmar’s Christians getting persecuted since they have the same religion as the coloniser. They are more susceptible to fall victim to the country’s sentiments of xenophobia. Then why are the Rohingya Muslims being victimised? The significant number of Muslims in the Rakhine state is one reason attributed for their unjust treatment. This maybe the reason why the Muslims in other parts of the state don’t undergo the same treatment as the Rohingyas.

Images showing the devastations caused by the bombings of Islamic fundamentalist groups in various corners of the world are used by the radical monks in forwarding their case of Muslims being dangerous. Gradually, Wirathu and his group of fanatical monks are assuming the face of Buddhism in South Asia, eclipsing the identity and viewpoints of other moderate Buddhist sects. The TIMES magazine portraying Wirathu as the face of Buddhist terror was banned not only in Myanmar but also in the predominantly Buddhist Sri Lanka displaying his international stature. Fearing repercussions and possibility of losing their Buddhist votes, both the majority parties USDP and NLD have towed the line by not fielding even one Muslim candidate. The division among the people in the Rakhine state has served as the perfect vehicle for the augmentation of the influence of the overzealous Buddhist monks. They are playing with the ethnic and religious identity clashes happening in the state.

Paranoia due to clash of ethnic identities?

The animosity between the Rakhines and the Rohingyas started as early as WWII where the former supported the Japanese while the latter was aided by British with weapons. Similar to other ethnic communities, the Rakhines and the Rohingyas differ vastly in their culture, customs and traditions. With the progression of time, the Rakhines in the south started feeling insecure and feared the erosion of their culture and tradition by the Rohingyas. The demand of the Rohingyas for an autonomous state in the northern part of Arakan also exacerbated their fears.

Further complicating the issue was the economic woes of the state. The Rakhine Buddhists already had a problem with the nationalist party of Myanmar and was an ethnic minority in their own way. The paranoia of being dominated by the Rohingyas both culturally and economically set off a violent and insidious hatred to grow among the ethnic group of the Rakhines.

Also the Rohingyas are not seen as an inherent part of Myanmar’s community as seen from themrohingyas being referred to as Bengali Muslims. The state derogatorily labels them as kalars and jailed 5 men last year for mentioning Rohingyas as part of Myanmar’s ethnic community in a calendar. Rohingyas are considered as outsiders and invaders and are seen as an extension of the era of colonial oppression. This symbolism of the Rohingya’s identity makes them the victim of wide-spread hatred among the Burmese. The presence of groups like ISIS in the contemporary world also results in stereotyping the Muslims and coming to the conclusion that all Muslims are terrorists. This phenomenon has been seen in the various protests that happened on the streets of Myanmar throughout 2015 when the crisis of ‘boat people’ captured the attention of the international system. Placards carrying slogans such as “We are under attack by terrorist so called boat people” are common sights in the country.

The majority feel they need to protect their country against the supposed UN bullying of Myanmar. The Burmese masses consider Rohingyas as Bengalis and fear the usurpation of their identity, religion and country. All of this makes them turn a blind eye and be indifferent to or sometimes become the perpetrators that contribute to the dismal plight of the Rohingyas. Any source that links the history of Rohingya with Myanmar is considered as false, fake and a bunch of lies supplied by media in exile.

As seen from above, political, religious and ethnic factors come into play and are interconnected with each other, making the Rohingya crisis one of the most complex issues of the 21st century. Islamophobia is running rampant in the country and the issue of discrimination against Muslims, which is forcing them to flee the country, is of grave concern and needs to be explored further. The fate of 1.3 million people rests on the way in which the crisis is going to be treated by the international community. The pressure they are going to apply on Myanmar to find the earliest possible solution for the refugee situation is of crucial importance.

The silence of NLD is worrying as it is the democratic voice of the country. Many scholars have attributed the relocation of the Rohingyas from the camps to their previous homes and the reduction on the number of Rohingya Muslims trying to flee the country to the democratic government. But the other side contemplate that the fear of human smugglers, perilous journey and being forced into bonded labour are the main deterrents for the fall in numbers. Critics have defended the Suu Kyi government by denoting its nascent state and believe that with the consolidation of power in the course of time, she will address the issue with due importance. But time is something the Rohingya Muslims are short of.

About the Author

Ms. Albertina Nithya B. is pursuing M.A. in International Studies at Stella Maris College, Chennai. She can be reached at <albertinanithya[at]gmail[dot]com>. Views are personal.  

The Madhesi Conundrum: Making Sense of India’s Stand  

ISSSP Reflections No. 41, May 03, 2016

Author: Sanjal Shastri

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It has been more than six months since Nepal’s new constitution was accepted; yet India has still not openly welcomed the constitution. The official Indian response has merely ‘noted’ the development. What is the reason for India’s approach? Why is the Madhesi community important for India? Did the Bihar elections have an impact? Does the RSS ideology have an impact on India’s stance? What are the implications of Prime Minister Oli’s visit? This commentary will try and address these questions.

In Sri Lanka, Maldives and in Nepal, historically, India has been supporting democratic and inclusive forces. In Sri Lanka, India has been a vocal supporter of devolution of power and the 13th amendment. India’s Operation Cactus helped save President Gayoom’s government from a military coup in the Maldives. Similarly in Nepal, the Indian government in the past has sided with the Nepali Congress. During the time of the monarchy, the Nepali Congress was seen as the frontrunner for democracy and greater inclusiveness. Given India’s history of supporting greater inclusiveness and democracy in the region, how does the latest stance on the new constitution fit in? The current Indian stance can be viewed as a continuation of its policy to support democracy and inclusiveness across the region. While the populations in the hills welcomed the constitution the Madhesis in the Terai launched an agitation claiming the constitution had ignored their demands. The challenge for the Indian government arose because of Madhesi dissatisfaction with the constitution. Over the past decade, Nepal has been in the process of rebuilding. By dismantling the monarchy, a new secular democratic republic is being setup. This therefore, is the ideal opportunity to bring on board groups that were historically marginalized.

While commitment to democracy and inclusiveness is one thing, the Madhesi question has another crucial dimension. Given the open border India shares with Nepal, a long-term solution to the Madhesi question is in India’s best interest. In case the Madhesis remain unhappy with the constitution there is always the risk of them launching a violent movement. Violence across the border in the Terai would be the last thing India wants. Having an open border and people in Bihar having close cultural ties with the Madhesis, a violent movement in the Terai would be a major security concern. The constitution as it stood in September 2015, did not satisfy the Madhesis, throwing open the long-term consequences of this opposition.

The Bihar Elections and the China factor have often been cited as reasons why the Indian government has backed the Madhesis. Were they actually decisive factors in India’s support for the Madhesis? When the new constitution was accepted in September 2015, the belief was that Indian opposition to the constitution was a part of the BJP’s election campaign.  Since the Madhesis have strong cultural links across the border, Madhesi issue would be an emotive one. The election results clearly proved that this was a false belief. Despite supporting the Madhesis, the BJP failed to do well in the elections. Even in the months following the elections the Indian government has stuck to its stance of ‘taking note’ of the constitution. It is unlikely the Bihar elections played a role in the government’s stance.

With 31% of Nepal’s population Madhesis, by ensuring proportional representation, the Indian government would have had a major bargaining block in the parliament vis-à-vis China. This has been one of the points raised by anti-India factions in Nepal. While, there is no denying that the Himalayan nation is of great strategic importance, it is unlikely that the Indian government would see the Madhesis as a counter-weight to China. There is truth in the fact that the elite circles in Nepali politics are increasingly looking towards China, but thanks to cultural, geographical and economic factors, India will continue to be in important factor in Nepal. Culturally, a vast majority of Nepal’s population identifies with India. Indian music, food and even cricket will ensure that India’s power status will be maintained in the future. For a Nepali, it is far easier to maintain people-people contact with India than China. Thanks to the open border with India, it is very easy for a Nepali citizen to visit India. However, they cannot visit China with similar ease. Economically, almost all of Nepal’s fuel, medicine and essential supplies come through India. Geographically, the southern border with India is more conducive to transport goods. Infrastructure facilities and the terrain would mean that China will never be able to replace India as Nepal’s primary economic partner. India therefore, need not be too alarmed about China increasing its presence. While popular media would like to project China’s role in India’s stance, in reality it is unlikely to have had much impact.

Indian support for the Madhesis is a part of its larger policy of supporting democratic and inclusive elements in the region. Apart from this, the possibility of a violent conflict breaking out that has pushed India to take this stand. One final question remains about the role of the RSS ideology. During the initial stages of the blockade, there were reports that Modi and the RSS were unhappy with the word ‘secular’ being included in the constitution. The RSS was reportedly keen on Nepal being called a Hindu state. Going by the foreign policy moves that Modi has initiated, it is difficult to see how the RSS ideology would have influenced his stand. Foreign policy moves like inviting the SAARC leaders including the Pakistani president or visiting Lahore would have been opposed by the RSS ideology. When Modi has taken such a stand on a far more emotive issue like Pakistan, it is hard to see how the RSS would have influenced him over this issue.

Despite a lot of hope being pinned on Prime Minister Oli’s visit to India, the fact of the matter is that nothing concrete has come out of the visit. Traditionally when the Prime Ministers of Nepal have met, they have issued a joint statement at the end of their meeting. This time around there was no joint statement issued. This is a telling fact regarding the success of the meeting. While Nepal has gone on to make several amendments to the constitution, there still remains some disagreement between the two countries. With the blockade being lifted there is hope that this disagreement will be settled sometime soon.

Looking back at what has transpired over the last six months, could India have handled this issue better? It is understandable that there are security concerns surrounding violence in the Terai, but there could have been a better way to deal with the situation. For all the issues the Madhesis have raised, this constitution was the first document that does some justice to Nepal’s pluralistic society. A statement from the Ministry of External Affairs welcoming the developments would have been the right way to go. This would not have jeopardized India’s support for the Madhesi demands. The six-month border blockade and the anti-India protests have done some damage to India-Nepal ties. However with the protests being called off last month both countries seem to be on the road to normalizing relations. Even at this late stage, a statement from the Ministry of External Affairs welcoming the constitution will go a long way in rebuilding trust.

About the Author

Mr. Sanjal Shastri is Research Intern at the International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore. He can be reached at <sshastri93[at]gmail[dot]com>

DPP – 2016: A New Face of “Make in India” in Defence

ISSSP Reflections No. 40, April 18, 2016

Author: Prakash Panneerselvam

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downloadThe much awaited Defence Procurement Procedure – DPP 2016 was unveiled by Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar during the inauguration of DEFEXPO – 2016.  The DPP – 2016 is an important step in restructuring the existing defence procurement and acquisition policy. Over the last two decades the government has failed to find a solution to the existing problem in Indian defence acquisition process, leading to several delays in acquiring much needed modern weapon platforms by the Indian armed forces. To resolve the issue, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has taken extra care in restructuring the DPP 2016, which he views as an important component in achieving self-reliance in the defence sector.

After assuming the office in 2014, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar had constituted a team of experts under former Union Home Secretary, Dhirendra Singh to review Indian defence procurement policy and DPP -2013. The new DPP – 2016 incorporates the Dhirendra Singh Committee recommendations and brings in dynamic changes in the defence procurement process. The DPP lays emphasis on achieving enhanced self-reliance in weapon manufacturing. Many industry and strategic experts have opined the proposed change would speed-up the procurement process. At the same time, it is also important to analyse, how the DPP – 2016 would impact the “Make in India” initiative in the defence manufacturing sector.

Highlights of DPP – 2016

The DPP – 2016 has largely focused on the ease of doing business and has attempted to create a level playing field for Indian industries, particularly private sectors. The DPP – 2016 is quite different from its previous edition for not remaining just as a manual for procurement process. Unlike DPP-2013, the new document has made an effort to clearly lay out the plan to achieve the self-reliance in defence sector by linking the DPP – 2016 with “Make in India” initiative. The “Make in India” initiative was one of the guiding principles of this government. The introduction of Buy (Indian – IDDM), reducing the timeframe for Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) to six months and Fast Track route to speed up procurement process are some of the major highlight of DPP – 2016. Moreover, changes in acquisition process, enabling provisions in “Buy and Make” cases and increase in funding of MoD project from present 80 to 90 percent in “Make” category are aimed to address multiple objective of self-reliance and provides impetus for MSME sector.

The major component of DPP -2016, the chapter on Strategic Partnership (SP) has been temporarily withheld given that there is disagreement within the Ministry of Defence (MoD) over the proposed SP model. The idea of SP model is to create an additional capacity in private sector to share the burden of Defence Public Sector Units (DPSUs) and Ordnance Factories (OFs). Since, the private sectors have no capability to compete against the much larger and more experienced DPSUs and Foreign OEMs. The Dhirander Singh and Dr VK Atre Committee suggested SP model to reverse the unequal situation between private sector and DPSUs.

The MoD’s finance department has raised concern over Dr VK Atre Committee’s suggestion to exclude defence manufacturing from the Competition Act 2002 and restrict it to SP mode, which could lead to monopolisation. Further, sub-optimal division of ship-building into above the water and below the water category faced severe criticism reportedly from several key private players. The SP model, the crucial element of the DPP – 2016 is likely to undergo further changes to remove the anomalies in the proposed SP model. Therefore, one has to wait for a clear enunciation of the SP model.

Boost for “Make in India”

The prioritisation of Buy (India-IDDM) in procurement category and “Make” project is aimed to provide handholding to “Make in India” initiative and has the potential to increase the contribution of manufacturing output to 25 percent of country’s GDP. The Indian private sector has also matured over the years is now capable of taking up design & development role in association with R&D organisation. With the DPP – 2016 in place it is becoming increasingly apparent to all concerned that the defence manufacturing capability cannot be built in isolation and requires the active involvement of the private sector.

The defence manufacturing is listed as one of the primary sectors of “Make in India” policy, keeping in mind its ability to attract investment from Foreign OEMs and create millions of jobs in the next five years. According to Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimates the defence sector has a potential of increasing the defence manufacturing workforce by 1 million people within five years. The report also claims every million directed job created in defence manufacturing will create additional 0.5 million in indirect jobs through sub-contracts and vendor. The human resource capacity in the private sector has already demonstrated its capability in field of automobile, Information technology (IT) and various other sectors. Government is trying to replicate the same model by inducing private sector and Foreign OEMs to invest in defence manufacturing.

In addition, the “Make in India” initiative also seeks to expand defence manufacturing keeping an eye on the highly lucrative defence export market. Across the world, governments have put in place a defence export strategy to tap the opportunity in overseas defence market. As of now, DPSUs are the leading exporters of weapon equipments and are planning to expand this arm of their business by three to four times in next five years. However, the growth of Indian industry in defence manufacturing sector is minimal when compared to DPSUs and OFs. It is imperative that the government should put in a framework that encourages collaboration between the Public and Private sector companies for defence export based on Public Private Partnership (PPP) model.

The DPSUs and Private sector should also put in place a system to share the capability and capacity to support overseas sales and servicing and maintenance through the life of the product. Even though the private sector companies get licenses for manufacturing weapons and ammunitions, it is the DPSUs and OFs which secure the orders. It is crucial the Indian government focuses on specific issues in defence export which could help in boosting the “Make in India” initiative. The DPP – 2016 which has articulated a level playing field for private sector would provide considerable push for the “Make in India” initiative.

In conclusion, Industry has responded positively to DPP – 2016 and “Make in India” in the defence manufacturing sector. Defence Minister Parrikar understands the limitation in procurement process and has mentioned the need for mindset change in MoD to speed up the process. The need of the hour is to bring transparency in defence procurement process and get rid of the inertia within the defence bureaucracy.

About the Author

Dr. Prakash Panneerselvam is Post Doctoral Associate at the International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore. He can be reached at <panprakash[at]gmail[dot]com>

Peshawar to Charsadda: Is the NAP adequate to deal with the TTP?

ISSSP Reflections No. 39, March 1, 2016

Author: Riffath Khaji
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Last month, the TTP made a deadly attack on Bacha Khan University in Charsadda. Despite the public anger against a similar strategy in Peshawar in December 2015 (the attack on Army Public School), the TTP seems to be continuing with its strategy.

Is the TTP  targeting the mainstream education, or have chosen them, because they are soft targets? Why is the State in Pakistan, despite the NAP, unable to neutralize the TTP? With the NAP faltering, will there be more Taliban attacks in Pakistan?

Schools and Colleges: Is the TTP targeting mainstream education?

The Pakistani Taliban seems to be targeting the schools and colleges because they are soft targets and also because they are main stream educational institutions. The Bacha Khan University system, started by Khan Abdul Gaffer Khan, is based on a secular, moderate and nationalist education.

In 2012, the TTP attacked Malala Yosufzai who represented the mainstream education, which TTP was against. The Army Public School was attacked by the TTP in 2014 not only because there were children of army personal, but also because it was a mainstream institution and a soft target as well. Given the enormity of the issue, physical protection of all the educational institutions will be a tough task. So the State will have to pursue a different strategy. A discussion on the NAP assumes importance in this context.

TTP’s Continuing Attacks: The Failure of National Action Plan?

Post Peshawar attack in 2014, the National Action Plan (NAP) was promulgated in January 2015. The primary objective is to fight terrorism. Following could be identified as the major features of the NAP: Some of the NAP highlights are as follow:-

  • No armed organization to be allowed to operate.
  • The anti-terrorism organization National Counter Terrorism Authority Pakistan (NACTA) to be strengthened and activated.
  • All sources of funding of terrorists and terrorist organizations to be completely eliminated.
  • Action to be taken to stop religious extremism and protect religious minorities.
  • Complete ban to be imposed on airing the views of terrorists and terrorist organizations in the print and electronic media.
  • Terrorists’ communication networks to be dismantled.
  • Immediate steps to stop the spread of terrorism on the internet and social media.

NAP looks good on papers but the reality is unchanged and unsatisfactory.

Despite the counter militancy operations and now the NAP, the violence in Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) by TTP has been increasing since 2007. Rise of the TTP in Pakistan’s FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) has also resulted in its expansion into other provinces through Punjabi Taliban and the Karachi Taliban.

After Peshawar attack, the State began acting against TTP with an extra vigour through the establishment of military courts, removing moratorium on death sentences and increased air attacks against the TTP. Though there is a tough military action, there seems to be less inputs from the political Establishment in addressing the issue.

Besides the seriousness over the NAP between the political and military establishments, the TTP is a well-networked cadre based organization. It draws its forces from both sides of Durand Line and has shown since its inception that it can re-group and re-organize and launch deadly attacks. As it penetrates into the heartland of Pakistani state from its traditional seat of operations, it is emphasizing and consolidating further. The increase in attacks in Sindh, especially Karachi, shows it is no longer confined to the tribal belts. It is also banking on the Pashtun sentiments and using it to score political points. The very fact that many religious based parties and nonpolitical organizations refused to condemn the Bacha Khan University attack shows TTP’s strength and influence.

With the existing differences at the State and political levels and the core of TTP remaining intact, the danger of more attacks in the coming days cannot be ruled out.  

About the Author

Ms Riffath Khaji is Junior Research Fellow, International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore. She can be reached at kaziriffath737[at]gmail[dot]com

NTI’s 2016 Nuclear Security Index Report

ISSSP Reflections No. 38, February 24, 2016

Author: Beenish Altaf
Print Print
NSS 2014

Source: MEA Website

After encountering the frenzy and blazing debates on the repercussions of 2012 and 2014 NTI reports, the year is again open to the same heated arguments once again. Being a national of the South Asian country where the matter of nuclear security always remained an important issue, this article is an attempt to analyse the 2016 NTI Nuclear Security Index.

Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) founded by US Senator Sam Nunn and CNN Founder, Ted Turner, works to strengthen global security by reducing the unauthorized and accidental use of nuclear weapons, preventing the spread of biological, chemical, radiological, and nuclear weapons.  In addition, the NTI also assesses and evaluates the safety at nuclear facilities worldwide.

Worldwide Theft/Sabotage Ranking

The NTI 2016 Nuclear Security Index ranks 25 countries that possess “one kilogram or more of weapons-usable nuclear materials.” Both India and Pakistan fall into this category. In Asia, while China is ranked 20th, India and Pakistan are placed 23rd and 22nd in the index out of the 24 states with weapons-usable nuclear materials. Japan occupies the 13th position but has moved up 6 places from 2012 NTI ranking. The top position has been retained by Australia. Among the nuclear weapons states, France is placed at the 7th position, United Kingdom and United States occupy the 11th position.

The third edition of the NTI Report released in January 2016 is prepared in collaboration with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). This year’s report has a new addition to the index that is the sabotage ranking, which reviews the nuclear security environment in 45 countries based on potential sabotage risks. The theft ranking and sabotage ranking scores assesses the contribution of 24 states across five broad categories (1) Quantities and Sites, (2) Security and Control Measures, (3) Global Norms, (4) Domestic Commitments and Capacity, and (5) Risk Environment.

The table below depicts the country-wise ranking in the 2016 NTI reports and the change from the 2012 NTI Report.

Beenish NTI Pic

Source: NTI Index Website www[dot]ntiindex[dot]org

The Nuclear Security Summit Process

The fourth and final gathering of the world leaders for Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) is planned for March 31 – April 1, 2016 in Washington D.C.  The 2016 Washington NSS will culminate the series of three summits held in Washington, DC (2010), Seoul (2012), and at The Hague (2014). All the three summits tried to draw attention to the threat of nuclear sabotage, security of facilities and sites, safety of fissile materials including while in transportation and nuclear terrorism and establish a mechanism to enforce the countries to take stronger measures to prevent nuclear terrorism.

Speaking about the NSS process, NTI Co-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Sam Nunn stated, “President Obama launched the summit process and he and his team as well as a host of committed world leaders, deserve credit for their achievements so far … and the work is not complete, however, and a plan to sustain high-level political attention on nuclear security must be a top priority at the Summit in Washington DC.” This statement creates an impression that the process of NSS has to go beyond the Obama Administration. However, there is no authentic information in the public domain as of yet whether the NSS process is likely to continue.

Likewise the NTI President Joan Rohlfing said “The current global nuclear security system has dangerous gaps that prevent it from being truly comprehensive and effective … Until those gaps are closed, terrorists will seek to exploit them. Leaders must commit to a path forward when they meet this spring. The consequences of inaction in the face of new and evolving threats are simply too great.” Rohlfing’s statement too reflects the desire to continue the NSS process beyond the 2016 NSS Summit.

It is pertinent to mention here that even though nuclear security is solely the sovereign right of a state, many countries should take the collective and mutually agreed steps to guarantee safety and security against the existing global threats. By and large, the NSS outcomes cannot be expected as a binding legal instrument and its operating mechanism are political in nature unless the states have signed the conventions. This situation creates an imperative to continue the NSS process beyond 2016 Washington DC summit .

Spotting Pakistan

Although Pakistan is one rank ahead of India in the NTI 2016 rankings, it still falls in the bottom of ranking for theft of nuclear weapon use-able material. The current NTI Index admits that Pakistan passed new cyber security regulations but it argues that the process of progress was too diminutive to upgrade its score. This is of course a subjective assessment that ignores their own statistics as given in the table.  Pakistan is taking steps to update its nuclear security regulations and to implement nuclear security best practices.

The NTI Report mentions that Pakistan’s improvement is primarily due to an “increased score for on-site physical protection resulting from new laws and regulations requiring licensees to provide physical protection to nuclear sites and on-site reviews of security.” Regarding the on-site physical protection the report mentions that “Pakistan, improved its score by three points compared with 2012, and demonstrated the largest improvement by any nuclear-armed state.” It is also pertinent to mention here that Pakistan has well-designed, skilled and committed nuclear security force approx 30,000 in number, which is geared to provide security, control and physical protection of its nuclear facilities and materials during transportation.

Despite deteriorating law and order situation in Pakistan not a single event of nuclear facility or radiological material’s theft has been reported so far which is commendable indeed. However, there is always a room for improvement and Pakistan needs to be vigilant to take measures to further improve the safety and security of its sensitive facilities to further improve its ranking in future.

About the Author

Beenish Altaf works for the Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad. She is currently pursuing projects related to the strategic issues of south Asia, South Asian quest for the export control group’s membership and Pakistan-India nuclear equation. She has been a Visiting Fellow at the Stimson Center, Washington DC. Her work has appeared in The National Interest, South Asian Voices, international blogs and various dailies. She can be reached at beenishaltaf7[at]gmail[dot]com

Conducting Academic and Policy Research related to National and International Security Issues
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