Webinar Title: HIMALAYAN FACE-OFF – DOKLAM TO GALWAN: IS IT A NEW NORMAL? June 18, 2020, organised by International Strategic and Security Studies Programme at National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

Welcome Remarks: Dr M. Mayilvaganan, Associate Professor, NIAS
Lt. Gen. (Dr) Prakash Menon, Director of the Strategic Studies Programme at the Takshashila Institution, Bangalore
Dr. Amit Mukherjee, Assistant Professor, ISSSP, NIAS
Question and Answer

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  • Rahul Dev

    The Shadow of Dragon

    bold steps taken to tackle the dragon

    After ‘ military movement’ from china’s armed forces in Tibet during past two months Doklam standoff ends. Now, in Galwan India and China on diplomatic engagement. Chinese policy makers using methods of coercive diplomacy has been successful in their objective. What lessons should learnt for indian counterparts, to show these first of all to know the basic psyqe of china.

    After, 1911 revolution by Dr. Sun-Yat-Sen China Progress tremendously. Dr. Sun- Yat- Sen started transforming into a young China. Mao Tse-Tung‘s communist ideology also unified china. India-China relations have been marked by many twirls and twists. After, proclaiming Tibet as its own territory which tended fuel to normal sense of rivalry which is going on. Now, she has its own hegemonistic designs.

    Now, the Chinese has technological edge and tested stealth fighter J-20 and making its better version J-31 and became third nation after the U.S & Russia to have a such technology, on other hand Indo-Russian consortium on FGFA making a stealth aircraft has taken so much time & scheduled to be operational in near future. They has already developed ASAT (Anti-satellite) weapons system and undersea warfare capabilities. They launched more powerful broadband transponder Asia sat-8 surveillance satellite to keep vigil on entire north-east indian sector. The Kargill episode has exposed the intelligence failure and ill-preparedness of the Indian defence forces.It has also made it clear that Pokhran-II is successful in posing a nuclear deterrent against a full fledged war, but not against a clandestine war.

    Recently, the news of joint production of F-16 by India and USA is not only good news for India’s aviation industry but also a landmark in the Indo-US defence partnership. US never cooperate with India its technological feats as these skills are his own monopoly. While, Be-jing is going to be major world power can cause imbalance in the power equations. The decision of U S to give India this technology has two points.Firstly, to check the growing Chinese influence in the Asian sub-continent. Secondly, it will boost its own military-industrial complex. As, India needs this technology to produce these aircrafts in home which will enable India capacity to make such type of formidable aircraft our own.

    So, Indian planners has to know all the pros and cons of this deal and its repercussions The present strategic scenario is not in favor of Indian strategic conditions as the Chinese policy to contain India is going on as in the case of Doklam clashes in Sikkim trijunction and other chinese project is the development of Kyauk-Pyu Port in bay of Bengal involving chinese investment of $ 7.3 billion in Myanmar to assume the control of the port and use for its naval operations as it has done in Gwadar in Pakistan and Hambantota in Sri Lanka. Its navy held joint exercises along Myanmar’s Shores,Thailand and Cambodia to show the world a blue water navy.The operationalisation of naval base in Coco Island also tilt the balance in favor of Chinese which is due to our wrong decision of our past leaders.

    We need to review and restructure our strategic interests to explore and built off-shore naval bases for our strategic forces, But, first of all to increase our air power. Now, India needs a sixth generation fighter aircraft, After, 20 years of R & D on LCA is not yet a frontline fighter. To fill the gap of our fighter fleet SU-30 mki and Rafael are the best choice. The equations has changed now. It will be better for India to choose or make like B-21 Raider, SU-57 instead of F-16 which has all the flexible complex technologies for modern future wars. IAF must have Stealth Long Range Strike Bombers.

    Ignorning, all warnings from china India reinforced its claim to Twang in Arunachal Pradesh which is an integral part of India. The Dalai Lama visited Twang, which has special significance to Tibetans.. But the main bone of contention is China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) involving an investment of $ 51 billion. CPEC challenges Indian sovereignty by traversing through Gilgit-Baltistan as apart of Bejing’s larger Eurasian OBOR project. China is evidently seeking to surround India with ‘string of Pearls ‘a new spike added to this is its new military base in Djibouti in Gulf of Aden a main Geo-strategic location where the almost 80 percent of international maritime trade passes through this route. India receives $ 50
    billion in imports and sends $ 60 billion in exports through this area annually. U.S, Russia and France has already naval bases on this route. But, India will be dependent on others in case of any adverse eventuality or war. China has also taken the land in lease from many African countries add another button.

    Chinese military strategy based on 5th century B.C its military treatise by Sun-Tzu’s ‘The Art of War ‘on which main strategy are laying plans, attack by stratagem with tactical dispositions and use of energy after examining weak and strong points of enemy. Presently, China is doing so by making ‘string of pearls’, CPEC and OBOR projects. They are making roads along Line of Actual Control (LAC).On Indian side we are only in defensive positions.

    At a time, when China is threatening to teach India another lesson and warning not to engage in Multi-front conflict over the stand-off in Doklam and Galwan vallley. Be-jing might try to emulate the New Delhi-Thimpu alliance in disputed territory must think that war has no solution to these problems. But, India should be ready for the multiple-front war. Diplomatic efforts on other hand to be going on to show the world community the true picture of these situations. We must collaborate with Russia, U S, Japan and EU to counter Chinese influence.

    (Rahul Dev)

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