Myanmar 2016: What next for the NLD?
NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 5 | Author: M. Mayilvaganan | March 2016
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To cite: M. Mayilvaganan. Myanmar 2016: What next for the NLD? NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 5. Bangalore: International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, March 2016, available at http://isssp.in/myanmar-2016-what-next-for-the-nld/
Myanmar has witnessed significant political and socioeconomic changes during the last five years. Civilian leaders have emerged in a military dominated polity where policy decisions are made through the Parliament. With a GDP growth rate of 7.7 percent and an estimated $74 billion in 2015, Myanmar is one of the rising economies today compared to being a least developed country few years ago. The daily life of the average citizen in Myanmar is better, aided by increasing investment, employment opportunities and new found personal freedom.
While there is widespread recognition within and internationally that the military (Tatmadaw) is the main driver of the current transition, yet there are big questions: Will the military permit triumphant National League for Democracy (NLD) to govern the country peacefully? Will the meaningful changes initiated in 2011 continue? Will Myanmar under NLD move towards a more inclusive and stable development progress? Will peace be finally achieved between the centre – Bamar dominated government – and the periphery – ethnic minorities, which control parts of the states in the border areas? Will NLD succeed in addressing the thorny issue of the religious minority Rohingyas? How will the relations between Myanmar and China develop under NLD regime?