Image Measurement Errors and Missile Performance

Authors: Lalitha Sundaresan, S. Chandrashekar, Rajaram Nagappa, N. Ramani

slider-Image Measurment Errors and Missile PerformanceThe main objective of this study is to estimate the errors in the measurement of lengths of missiles or satellite launch vehicles from digital images available in the public domain when the scale or the pixel sizes of the images are not known.

The present report is an attempt to validate the methodology used in previous ISSSP studies by estimating the measurement error. We estimate the error by making measurements on images of missiles whose dimensions are known a priori with confidence.

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Assessment of Ballistic Missile Production Capacity in Pakistan

Author: Rajaram Nagappa

pak BM Prod capacityPakistan has an active ballistic missile programme comprising four missiles based on solid propellant and one missile based on liquid propellant. In this report an attempt is made to assess the solid propellant based production capacity and gauge the number of missiles that may be produced and that may be in stock in Pakistan. 

It is well known that the Pakistan missile effort has drawn extensively upon French and Chinese inputs pertaining to technology, equipment and materials. At the same time Pakistan appears to have developed capability to indigenously design and realise solid propulsion systems for use in ballistic missiles. Using this and other inputs, an assessment of material requirements is made for the principal subsystems.

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An Assessment of China’s Ballistic and Cruise Missiles

Authors: S. Chandrashekar, Sonika Gupta, Rajaram Nagappa, Arvind Kumar

china BM and CMThe primary objective of this study is to provide an independent assessment of Chinese ballistic and cruise missile capability. The study on the Chinese Ballistic and Cruise Missiles uses images of these missiles available in the public domain to make an independent assessment of their capabilities. Length and diameter measurements on the images of these missiles are used to estimate propellant and stage masses.

These estimates are used along with trajectory and range models to assess the performance of the missiles. This methodology has been applied to the DF-1, the DF-2, the DF-3, the DF-4, the DF-5, the JL-1 / DF-21, the JL-2 / DF-31, the DF-15 and the DF-11 ballistic missiles. The scope of our study also included the longer range cruise missiles. The study also works out a procedure for independently trying to estimate the number of DF-5 missiles produced by China. Current developments and how they will affect the Chinese missile programme are also briefly touched upon.

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Assessment of Pakistan’s Babur-HATF 7 Cruise Missile

Authors: Rajaram Nagappa, S Chandrashekar

Pak babur Hatf VIIPakistan has developed the Babur subsonic cruise missile and conducted five flights of the missile between August 2005 and December 2007. The range of the missile was stated to be 500 km in the initial flights. However, an increased range of 700 km was claimed in the latest flight. There was also a suggestion that the range may be further increased to 1000 km.

While the Pakistan media have shown pictures of the missile in the static and flight conditions, no dimensional or mass details of the missile have been officially released. An assessment of the missile dimensions has been carried out by studying these images. It is surmised that the missile diameter may be 560 mm and the total length 6.6 m.

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Assessing the Indo-US Deal on Civil Nuclear Cooperation: Managing Risks and Opportunities

Authors: Sonika Gupta, Arvind Kumar, S. Chandrashekar

us-deal risks and oppThere has been a lot of debate in India on the risks associated with entering into civil nuclear cooperation with the US. The deal raises interrelated political, strategic and operational risks. The Henry J. Hyde Act passed by the US Congress lays down the legal framework within which the US must negotiate the bilateral 123 Agreement with India. 

This study undertakes critical analysis of the Indo-US deal and assesses the risks associated with entering into this deal and suggests strategies to manage these risks. This report also contains two annexures. Annexure I analyses the major provisions of the Hyde Act. Annexure II examines the economic implications of creating and maintaining a strategic fuel reserve over the lifetime of each imported reactor.

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Assessing the Indo-US Deal on Civil Nuclear Cooperation: Forging a New Partnership

Authors: Sonika Gupta, Arvind Kumar, S. Chandrashekar

us deal new partnershipThe Indo-US nuclear deal has generated a heated debate in India.  The debate so far has been characterized more by ideological posturing rather than by an objective assessment of the pros and cons of the deal.  Many in India have commented that the Act passed by the House of Representatives has altered the goal posts agreed to in the Joint Statement by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President George W. Bush 

The paper shall trace the related developments to assess whether both countries have adhered to the underlying parameters agreed upon in the Joint Statement. In so doing the authors shall also address the various concerns raised by critics of the deal and try to see how these could affect the approaches of the two sides towards the deal. While it is still too early to comment on the outcome with any certainty, the study will try to prioritise the various issues and concerns in terms of their impact on the ongoing negotiations between India and the US.

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National Workshop on Indo-US Relations: Changing Contours of Indo-US Relations

Editors: K.P. Vijayalakshmi, Arvind Kumar, Sonika Gupta, S. Chandrashekar

changing-contours WRepThe International Strategic and Security Studies Programme of the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore organised a two day National Workshop on “Changing Contours of Indo-US Relations” during 9-10 February 2006. The objectives of the Workshop were to exchange views and generate opinion on a wide spectrum of issues relating to Indo-US relations. 

The major focus of the Workshop was to critically assess the paradigm shift in perceptions reshaping Indo-US relations. The purpose was to get different perspectives on the commonalities and differences that would govern Indo-US relations in the near and distant future. The visit of the US President George W. Bush to India and the possibility of an accord between the US and India on civilian nuclear cooperation provided the backdrop to the organization of the workshop.

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Assessment of Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile Programme: Technical and Strategic Capability

Authors: S. Chandrashekar, Arvind Kumar, Rajaram Nagappa

Pak BM capabThough there is some material on the Pakistan missile programme in the public domain, it is still a very difficult task to separate out the wheat from the chaff and make a realistic assessment of the programme’s true capabilities. Information in the public domain is often noisy, garbled and distorted. There are also vested interests and leaks that further muddy already muddy waters. 

This study on the Pakistan missile programme attempts to provide an independent assessment of Pakistani missile capabilities through a careful scrutiny and analysis of publicly available data. It is believed that such an independent assessment will contribute towards a better understanding of the capabilities of one of India’s most important neighbours.

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Report on the Draft Indian Nuclear Doctrine, National Institute of Advanced Studies, 2001, pp x+45, ISBN: 81-87663-14-6.

Editor: Arvind Kumar

Nuclear DoctorineThe report is based on a workshop held (November 26-27 1999) at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore shortly after the Government of India released the draft document on the Indian nuclear doctrine in August 1999 for public debate and discussion.

The workshop provided a platform for the academics and members of the strategic community to exchange views on the draft doctrine which had been released by the Indian National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) in August 1999.

Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty and Options for India

Author: S Rajagopal 

FMCTThis study is the first Report of a comprehensive analysis of a variety of important nuclear treaties and agreements and their linkages and implications for India, being undertaken by the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore.

The purpose of this Report on the FMCT is to analyse various options and formulate recommendations to serve as an aid to policy initiatives. The methodology involves analysing both benefits and risks of each option in the context of national security in particular.

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India’s Options of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

Authors: Deepa Ollapally, S. Rajagopal, Raja Ramanna

rsz_ctbt_reportIndia has reached a critical juncture in relation to the CTBT. Given that the CTBT has serious implications for India’s nuclear policy, it is imperative that a thorough assessment be undertaken of India’s CTBT options before a choice in made.

This report emanated from a workshop held on the topic at the National Institute of Advanced Studies on March 28, 1996. The workshop was attended by a number of experts in the field holding a variety of perspectives. The format of this report follows the way in which the workshop was structured.

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