Tag Archives: Afghanistan

US-Pak Relations: What has Changed? What hasn’t? and What is unlikely to Change?

NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 21 | Author: D Suba Chandran | January 2018

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To cite: D Suba Chandran. “US-Pak Relations: What has Changed? What hasn’t? and What is unlikely to Change?,” NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 21. Bangalore: International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, January 2018.

Trump’s New Year tweet on January was almost an ultimatum asking Pakistan to take certain actions towards Afghanistan and the militants groups in the Af-Pak region.

The American threat of “do more” is not a new one; during the last few years, one could see a trend and a déjà vu in the US threats towards Pakistan and the response by the latter. The Trump administration issued a similar threat a few months earlier, followed by attempting to work with Pakistan “one last time”.

However, the threat issued by Trump through a tweet seems to be different. There was a follow up action to the Trump threat; the US administration announced suspending the aid across-the-board.

How far will the US administration go this time in forcing Pakistan to do more? What has changed? And what has not? And what is not likely to?

What Trump’s Afghanistan Policy Means for India

The Diplomat, July 15, 2017

Sourina Bej is a research consultant at the Institute of Strategic and Security Studies Program, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

Beyond the friendly diktats and signature hugs, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Unites States on June 25 and 26 had some overlooked signals on the future of Afghanistan policy. With the United States still mulling over its new direction, India has much to consider when it comes to President Donald Trump’s Af-Pak policy. Is India ready for deep security engagement in Afghanistan? Will this be required as Trump’s Af-Pak policy is unveiled?

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“Afghans’ Kabul Problem,” Rising Kashmir,

Rising Kashmir, June 06, 2017

D. Suba Chandran is Professor, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru.

Just few days after the horrific terror attack with a truck bomb (end May) in the heart of the city, Kabul witnessed further attacks on a subsequent funeral meeting. While the latest attack on a funeral claimed more than 15 victims, the truck bomb earlier claimed more than 90. While terror attacks within Afghanistan have increased during the recent months, and can be explained through the Taliban summer surge, how to explain Kabul being the primary target?

The shifting sands in Afghanistan

The Hindu, May 24, 2016

D. Suba Chandran, Professor, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore

The HinduThree major developments during the last 10 days are likely to have significant implications on the future of the Afghan peace process — the unsuccessful conclusion of the Afghan Quadrilateral Coordination Group’s (QCG) talks in Islamabad, the U.S. Congress’s conditions on Pakistan to do more on Afghanistan to receive any further American aid, and the killing of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour in Balochistan by an American drone.

Did one development cause the other? Or did they take place simultaneously, and is the sequencing just a coincidence? Either way, they have serious implications for the Afghan peace process. A fourth development, though not totally outside the above three, is a formal understanding between the Afghan government and Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. This agreement, though more likely to strengthen the internal peace process within Afghanistan, would have its own repercussions on the QCG dialogue.

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