Tag Archives: NIAS Strategic Forecast

“LoC, J&K and New Delhi:New Pak COAS & Likely Challenges for India”

“LoC, J&K and New Delhi:New Pak COAS & Likely Challenges for India”

NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 11 | Author: D Suba Chandran | December 2016

To read the complete report click here

To cite: D Suba Chandran. “LoC, J&K and New Delhi: New Pak COAS & Likely Challenges for India,” NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 11. Bangalore: International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, December 2016, available at


Pakistan has a new Chief of Army Staff. Gen Bajwa has been appointed as the new COAS in November 2016, following the retirement of Gen Sharif. After taking charge, Gen Bajwa has made reshuffle within the organization; there is a new Chief of the ISI and also a new Chief of General Staff. In short, there is a new team at the helms of Pakistan’s military and its ISI. From an Indian perspective, it is important to analyse and even forecast, Gen Bajwa’s likely India strategy. The Indo-Pak trend that was set by Musharraf on Indo-Pak relations, especially related to LoC and Kashmir, and pursued by Gen Kayani was broken during the end of Gen Sharif’s tenure.

Given the recent trend in India’s posture towards Pakistan, one could expect an assertive strategy towards Pakistan. What is likely to be Gen Bajwa’s response and road map vis-a-vis India?

The US Elections: Trump, Hillary & India

The US Elections: Trump, Hillary & India

NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 9 | Author: Amit Gupta | July 2016

To read the complete report click here

To cite: Amit Gupta. The US Elections: Trump, Hillary & India. NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 9. Bangalore: International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, September 2016, available at


nsf-9There is global interest in the 2016 US elections because of the candidacy of Donald Trump. If one leaves aside the outrageous and distasteful statements of Mr. Trump there are some ideas that he has put forward that are quite revolutionary from an American foreign policy perspective. Similarly, Hillary Clinton, thanks to the Bernie Sanders candidacy, has been moved significantly to the left in the context of her foreign economic policy. What are these key shifts, to what extent are they enforceable, and what implications are there for India?

Neither candidate is likely to pose major problems for the Indian government since the India-US relationship has moved beyond the idiosyncrasies of a specific administration. Common interests now shape the relationship and the US has dropped its hyphenation of India with Pakistan and recognizes that Kashmir is not an easily resolvable issue. President Trump is likely to be even more unsympathetic to Pakistan on the Kashmir issue given that protesters in Srinagar have started raising ISIS flags, an action that raises the hackles of western intelligence organizations. To sum up, the India-US relationship is unlikely to undergo major downturns since the relationship is better institutionalized and both candidates are seeking to be focused on domestic issues.

Indian Ocean 2016: Major Trends

Indian Ocean 2016: Major Trends

NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 1 | Author: Vijay Sakhuja | February 8, 2016

To read the complete report click here

To cite: Vijay Sakuja. Indian Ocean 2016: Major Trends. NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 1. Bangalore: International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, February 2016, available at http://isssp.in/indian-ocean-2016-major-trends/


NIAS Strategic Forecast_No_1 Sakhuja

The following five could be considered as major issues in the Indian Ocean in 2016. First, there are visible signs of naval modernization by the Indian Ocean countries who are engaged in developing strong naval power for a number of reasons enunciated above. Both big and small maritime states could acquire a variety of platforms and among these the ‘submarines’ are likely to find favour. However, the smaller countries and island states would be quite content to acquire systems and platforms for maritime domain awareness either individually or in close cooperation with bigger naval powers. 

Second, the Chinese naval forays into the Indian Ocean would be more frequent. The choice of Chinese naval platforms (frigates, destroyers, conventional submarines) sent to the Indian Ocean in the past would qualitatively improve and nuclear submarines could become a common sight. This would encourage other nuclear submarine operating navies to deploy additional forces in the Indian Ocean resulting in an aggressive naval posturing in these waters. 

Conducting Academic and Policy Research related to National and International Security Issues
Sign up for Updates

Enter your email below



We will not share your email