“Uranium constraints in Pakistan: how many nuclear weapons does Pakistan have?,”Current Science, Vol. 115, No. 6, September 25, 2018
Estimates of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal as with most countries are fraught with uncertainty. Most estimates try to make an assessment based on the number of nuclear capable delivery vehicles, namely, ballistic and cruise missiles, aircrafts. Although there could well be a correlation between the number of delivery vehicles and the nuclear arsenal; uncertainties associated with the delivery vehicles has also to be accounted for.
It is generally accepted that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme relies on domestic supplies of uranium. Although constraints on uranium supply in Pakistan are recognized, this is often not taken into account when estimating the amount of fissile material that Pakistan may have produced. Most assessments of Pakistan’s fissile materials and arsenal size fail to look at the supply and demand situations in Pakistan in an integrated way.